My favorite part is how the AI generated image in this article that maybe AI isn’t that amazing created a Chinese man with a hand for a dick holding the flag.
AI is only as useful as the data it's trained on and while this is abundant in some categories (e.g. generic text and images, computer code in popular languages) it is sparse in others. E.g. AlphaFold is built on decades of public domain X-ray and cryo microscopy data and while usually models single proteins successfully, often struggles predicting protein interactions where training data is far sparser. In other fields (e.g. 3D/CAD/CAM) there ought to be abundant data but it's mostly in private hands. Given the rapaciousness of the AI giants, the perception they're the only beneficiaries of this boom, they may struggle to convince others to hand over data for free. A shame for the AI user, but there does need to be some compensation mechanism for those generating the training data.
Your core thesis is spot on. If there is an AI-bubble-popping crash, just at the time when non-AI GDP growth and non-AI tech profits are slowing; just at the time when Chinese tech on semiconductors is catching up and China continues to dominate more and more industries in the physical economy; just at the time the US military is being fought to a standstill and attritted in Ukraine and Iran - that goes way beyond an economic event and will have major geopolitical implications. If it happens, that may be the moment we point to, 30 years hence, and say "that's when it became obvious the US was no longer #1".
Well, you see .... AI needs to be trained only on content from the smartest people, such as those who got everything wrong about Covid, and those who understand that a man can become a woman.
BTW, are you aware that America (the West) is ruled by those who want to destroy it, and who have largely accomplished that goal?
Wonderful read. And I agree. We've lost something of ourselves in the past few years.
My favorite part is how the AI generated image in this article that maybe AI isn’t that amazing created a Chinese man with a hand for a dick holding the flag.
AI is only as useful as the data it's trained on and while this is abundant in some categories (e.g. generic text and images, computer code in popular languages) it is sparse in others. E.g. AlphaFold is built on decades of public domain X-ray and cryo microscopy data and while usually models single proteins successfully, often struggles predicting protein interactions where training data is far sparser. In other fields (e.g. 3D/CAD/CAM) there ought to be abundant data but it's mostly in private hands. Given the rapaciousness of the AI giants, the perception they're the only beneficiaries of this boom, they may struggle to convince others to hand over data for free. A shame for the AI user, but there does need to be some compensation mechanism for those generating the training data.
Fantastic post. You've been on a roll recently.
Your core thesis is spot on. If there is an AI-bubble-popping crash, just at the time when non-AI GDP growth and non-AI tech profits are slowing; just at the time when Chinese tech on semiconductors is catching up and China continues to dominate more and more industries in the physical economy; just at the time the US military is being fought to a standstill and attritted in Ukraine and Iran - that goes way beyond an economic event and will have major geopolitical implications. If it happens, that may be the moment we point to, 30 years hence, and say "that's when it became obvious the US was no longer #1".
Thank you Alex! Are you following Erik Hoel's essays on the subject? Lots of good food for thought there.
I'm pretty sure I just read one of the most accurate and alarming analyses of the AI myth. But I've also just had a few beers so I need to sleep on it
How’d it hold up after the night’s sleep? Hope you stay hydrated!
Well, you see .... AI needs to be trained only on content from the smartest people, such as those who got everything wrong about Covid, and those who understand that a man can become a woman.
BTW, are you aware that America (the West) is ruled by those who want to destroy it, and who have largely accomplished that goal?