Thanks for sharing your personal journey of becoming an authentic Heterodox.
I admire your courage and honesty in presenting and pursuing your hypothesis in face of hostility and discouragement from your Seniors ,colleagues and eventually all the Orthodox.(with MSM as their cheerleaders)
Keep climbing to guide and help the Herd out of this highly educated (orthodoxy) gulag we have found ourselves in since Pandemia.
You are indeed a fine, fine fella. You, and a few select others who have cast their minds over this sordid mess. You have chosen the hard road. Me? I'm coming up 73, and in my own very small way I well know it's a tough road to have chosen, but one that I too have no regret in taking. Good luck on your journey. You will prevail. I have no doubt. None.
Over the course of COVID, the short wasn't even the most lucrative trade. While the short helped make some money in avoiding the downside, The Omicron Strategy beat the market >60% during the historic bear market of 2022. Suffice to say, I managed to earn a bit of change during COVID, far more than one would expect from a postdoc in Montana.
Alex, you really are so brilliant and insightful too. What a great combination. I so enjoyed reading about your mother and her accomplishments. She’s a solid role model. I don’t know if science has always been this dirty or worsened over the past 4 years. I guess ego’s are really detrimental to the advancement of science. You are too valuable an asset to science to squander. Hopefully, your path exposes you to like minded people. Thank you so much.
Regarding the Frost Poem which I have always loved.
Many people don’t understand that Frost was not talking about people making decisions that were less popular.
He was mocking the indecisive nature of his friend Edward Thomas who used to walk with him in the forests of the UK.
Thomas always lamented that he should have taken a different walking path after they had chosen one of the paths.
Thomas did not understand the poem until Frost had to carefully spell it out for him.
Ironically, It changed Thomas to such an extent that he decided to not use his war exemption due to his age and he went off to world war 1.
He was killed in action at the age of 39.
In your link to the Economist article summarising your work, it says at the bottom of the article....
“..the authors of the study on which it is based have substantially revised their findings.In a manuscript issued on April 26th, their estimate of the increase in visits to doctors……….has fallen from 23m to 3m……….their estimate of total covid 19 infections in America during that period has similarly fallen from 29m to 9m……applying these revised figures to the calculation used in the piece-official covid 19 deaths divided by the increase in visits to doctors for non-flu ILI-would yield a fatality rate of 1.3%……if we instead divide official covid 19 deaths by the authors revised estimate of total covid infections, the fatality rate would be 0.4%..”
I am guessing the journalist did not understand the difference between IFR and CFR?
Your revised figure for IFR was 0.4%, was the consensus view at the time (December 2020)for IFR about double your estimate or even higher?
The consensus view on IFR was around 0.6-1%, and every one of those estimates assumed 0% false negative rates of PCR tests (Diamond Princess) or serosurveys. A serosurvey in Gangelt,
Germany, obtained an IFR of .4% IIRC, but that was sufficiently against the priors of most epidemiologists that they discarded it in favor of other serosurveys (e.g. the NYC one) aligning with their views (although NYC had higher death rates due to nursing home issues, as well as a significant false negative rate of serosurveys not used in these adjustments)
You might not be aware of the untold numbers of vaccine injuries. I am vaccine injured. I, like so many others have gone through a terrifying nightmare. The scientists and doctors who have spoken out about vaccine injuries now have a target on their backs. Some have lost their licences, fined and their reputations are smeared. Dr. Phillip Buckhaults molecular biologist, cancer geneticist was in the South Carolina senate describing what he found in vials he tested. Pfizer had a process 1, which they used for emergency use but process 2 was used for all others. He found contaminated plasmid DNA. The problem is it’s encapsulated in LNP’s. He has applied for approval to do tests on stem cells, which I’m sure he’ll be “denied”. Many others scientists around the world have confirmed the findings. These are the brave. MSM is not speaking about what’s going. The government is silent. The government censored the vaccine injured on social media although it was the only place to get support, see if anyone got much needed advice or answers from their doctors, we cried, were comforted by others. The governments around the world have been cruel. I don’t understand the overwhelming need to deny lab leak or vaccine injury at the expense of people’s lives or reputations.
Thank you for sharing your story. I admire your candor and your courage. I am grateful for men and women like you. But I fear those others, the orthodox, like my own physician, who still urges me to “get your boosters” … even after telling her I don’t believe they are effective or safe … but she still continues to say the words “get the COVID booster shot” at every visit, perhaps in order to get paid by Medicare. I don’t trust my doctor or any doctor now. They are all owned by hospital or insurance conglomerates and are told what to say and how to treat their patients. This is what U.S. medicine has come to.
Thank you for sharing! I’m struggling with a similar crossroads, though my journey has been riddled with personal mistakes and unforeseen barriers that have resulted in not much to show for my heterodoxy.
Two questions seeking advice:
1) how does one secure funding to do heterodox work, especially if one is to operate outside of academia and not wish to be beholden to “industry funding”, with its inherent conflicts of interest?
2) does it make sense to use alternative avenues like preprints and substack to get your work out there without having to rely on the orthodox pathway of seeking publication and submitting ourselves to the broken system of orthodox-defending peer review? What is the alternative?
Whenever I encounter someone new and discover that they are studying some kind of environmental science, I pop the question “how much of the air that you are breathing right now do you think is carbon dioxide?”
I get the right answer, 0.04%, so rarely, and truly ludicrous overestimations so frequently, but I have concluded that the vast majority of young people actually studying these things should probably be doing something else. Their teachers are failing them, and they lack basic scientific intuition and common sense.
Alec:
Thanks for sharing your personal journey of becoming an authentic Heterodox.
I admire your courage and honesty in presenting and pursuing your hypothesis in face of hostility and discouragement from your Seniors ,colleagues and eventually all the Orthodox.(with MSM as their cheerleaders)
Keep climbing to guide and help the Herd out of this highly educated (orthodoxy) gulag we have found ourselves in since Pandemia.
Tusen Takk
Jon
As the environmental historian William Cronon once nicely put it " experts live at the cutting edge of conformity"
Dear Alex. Thanks for taking the road less traveled. Your commentary here is exemplary -and inspiring!
“……Few things amplify indignancy more than a refusal to yield….”. Ain’t that the truth.
I am moved by your story and full of admiration for your courage and tenacity. Hang on in there. Truth WILL out.
This is conscientious science. If anything good comes out of the pandemic, it will be awareness and humility thanks to witnesses like you.
You are indeed a fine, fine fella. You, and a few select others who have cast their minds over this sordid mess. You have chosen the hard road. Me? I'm coming up 73, and in my own very small way I well know it's a tough road to have chosen, but one that I too have no regret in taking. Good luck on your journey. You will prevail. I have no doubt. None.
"Instead of these findings informing people of an oncoming pandemic, they were used to help a hedge fund short the market."
I hope you made money on the deal. A lot.
Over the course of COVID, the short wasn't even the most lucrative trade. While the short helped make some money in avoiding the downside, The Omicron Strategy beat the market >60% during the historic bear market of 2022. Suffice to say, I managed to earn a bit of change during COVID, far more than one would expect from a postdoc in Montana.
Dude: you, of all people, deserved it.
Alex, you really are so brilliant and insightful too. What a great combination. I so enjoyed reading about your mother and her accomplishments. She’s a solid role model. I don’t know if science has always been this dirty or worsened over the past 4 years. I guess ego’s are really detrimental to the advancement of science. You are too valuable an asset to science to squander. Hopefully, your path exposes you to like minded people. Thank you so much.
I totally agree, Al. Well said!
God bless--we need many many more like you.
Hi Alex
Great Post!
Regarding the Frost Poem which I have always loved.
Many people don’t understand that Frost was not talking about people making decisions that were less popular.
He was mocking the indecisive nature of his friend Edward Thomas who used to walk with him in the forests of the UK.
Thomas always lamented that he should have taken a different walking path after they had chosen one of the paths.
Thomas did not understand the poem until Frost had to carefully spell it out for him.
Ironically, It changed Thomas to such an extent that he decided to not use his war exemption due to his age and he went off to world war 1.
He was killed in action at the age of 39.
In your link to the Economist article summarising your work, it says at the bottom of the article....
“..the authors of the study on which it is based have substantially revised their findings.In a manuscript issued on April 26th, their estimate of the increase in visits to doctors……….has fallen from 23m to 3m……….their estimate of total covid 19 infections in America during that period has similarly fallen from 29m to 9m……applying these revised figures to the calculation used in the piece-official covid 19 deaths divided by the increase in visits to doctors for non-flu ILI-would yield a fatality rate of 1.3%……if we instead divide official covid 19 deaths by the authors revised estimate of total covid infections, the fatality rate would be 0.4%..”
I am guessing the journalist did not understand the difference between IFR and CFR?
Your revised figure for IFR was 0.4%, was the consensus view at the time (December 2020)for IFR about double your estimate or even higher?
Thanks!
The consensus view on IFR was around 0.6-1%, and every one of those estimates assumed 0% false negative rates of PCR tests (Diamond Princess) or serosurveys. A serosurvey in Gangelt,
Germany, obtained an IFR of .4% IIRC, but that was sufficiently against the priors of most epidemiologists that they discarded it in favor of other serosurveys (e.g. the NYC one) aligning with their views (although NYC had higher death rates due to nursing home issues, as well as a significant false negative rate of serosurveys not used in these adjustments)
Thanks!!
You might not be aware of the untold numbers of vaccine injuries. I am vaccine injured. I, like so many others have gone through a terrifying nightmare. The scientists and doctors who have spoken out about vaccine injuries now have a target on their backs. Some have lost their licences, fined and their reputations are smeared. Dr. Phillip Buckhaults molecular biologist, cancer geneticist was in the South Carolina senate describing what he found in vials he tested. Pfizer had a process 1, which they used for emergency use but process 2 was used for all others. He found contaminated plasmid DNA. The problem is it’s encapsulated in LNP’s. He has applied for approval to do tests on stem cells, which I’m sure he’ll be “denied”. Many others scientists around the world have confirmed the findings. These are the brave. MSM is not speaking about what’s going. The government is silent. The government censored the vaccine injured on social media although it was the only place to get support, see if anyone got much needed advice or answers from their doctors, we cried, were comforted by others. The governments around the world have been cruel. I don’t understand the overwhelming need to deny lab leak or vaccine injury at the expense of people’s lives or reputations.
Thank you for sharing your story. I admire your candor and your courage. I am grateful for men and women like you. But I fear those others, the orthodox, like my own physician, who still urges me to “get your boosters” … even after telling her I don’t believe they are effective or safe … but she still continues to say the words “get the COVID booster shot” at every visit, perhaps in order to get paid by Medicare. I don’t trust my doctor or any doctor now. They are all owned by hospital or insurance conglomerates and are told what to say and how to treat their patients. This is what U.S. medicine has come to.
Thank you for sharing! I’m struggling with a similar crossroads, though my journey has been riddled with personal mistakes and unforeseen barriers that have resulted in not much to show for my heterodoxy.
Two questions seeking advice:
1) how does one secure funding to do heterodox work, especially if one is to operate outside of academia and not wish to be beholden to “industry funding”, with its inherent conflicts of interest?
2) does it make sense to use alternative avenues like preprints and substack to get your work out there without having to rely on the orthodox pathway of seeking publication and submitting ourselves to the broken system of orthodox-defending peer review? What is the alternative?
Whenever I encounter someone new and discover that they are studying some kind of environmental science, I pop the question “how much of the air that you are breathing right now do you think is carbon dioxide?”
I get the right answer, 0.04%, so rarely, and truly ludicrous overestimations so frequently, but I have concluded that the vast majority of young people actually studying these things should probably be doing something else. Their teachers are failing them, and they lack basic scientific intuition and common sense.
You lost me at the beginning when your Mom said most of the air we breathe in is carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide is well under 1% of the atmosphere.
If you check the original on the substack, that idiotic claim isn't there. Someone edited it before reposting on the Brownstone site.